Ready or not: Getting to 2020

The nation's chances of meeting President Obama's ambitious college-completion goals by 2020 are fraught with challenges, panelists said Friday morning. Chief among them: What is college completion?

The federal government, for example, does not count two-year degrees or certificates as completions, said Terry Hartle, a senior vice president at the American Council on Education. The rest of the world, on the other hand, does. So how can we possibly be ranked No. 1 in the world without counting those people, he asked. Both Obama and Sarah Palin are counted as college dropouts by the government's flawed definitions, Hartle said.

Much of the discussion centered on the use of statistics and whether the right numbers are being used to measure completion. The government should be focusing on the actual number of people finishing college programs rather than completion rates, said consultant Art Hauptman. The emphasis on percentages is likely to cause problems, he said.

Despite obvious misgivings with the way the United States will measure completion, panelists said the 2020 goal is an opportunity to improve U.S. higher education. Universities, for example, need to start looking closely at the social problems that plague urban areas, said Mohammad Qayoumi, president of California State University East Bay. Helping students from those troubled regions will be a key to improving graduation rates, he said.

Out of every 10,000 students in the bottom economic quartile, Qayoumi said, only 771 get a bachelor's degree. And only 32 of those degrees are in science, technology, engineering or math fields. Those figures are alarming, he said.

States in particular need to make some fundamental changes to improve their numbers, Hartle said. Among his recommendations: Create more college-ready students, invest in public higher education, focus on nontraditional students such as veterans and the unemployed and start emphasizing completion rather than access.

Speakers also alluded to some tough choices. Should public universities keep out students who have remedial needs in order to boost completion rates? Should budget-conscious schools, particularly those in California, reverse their recent enrollment caps by increasing teaching loads?